Macro Report
April 24 2025
FutureGate | Global macro developments are driving a shift in investor sentiment as geopolitical and economic signals point toward potential stabilization. Trump stated he plans to be “very nice” to China in ongoing trade discussions and is reportedly weighing a significant reduction in tariffs—potentially cutting them by 50–65%—as a means to ease bilateral tensions. This marks a notable de-escalation in trade rhetoric that could catalyze renewed momentum in risk assets.
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Meanwhile, optimism around trade is supported by strong economic data out of Europe, with EU exports to the U.S. jumping 22.4% in February, reaching €51.8 billion—the fastest growth in over a year. On the domestic front, U.S. manufacturing PMI edged higher to 50.7 in April, signaling modest expansion and offering some relief to concerns over industrial weakness. In the commodities space, JPMorgan has reiterated a bullish outlook on gold, forecasting the precious metal could reach $4,000 per ounce by Q2 2026, driven by macro uncertainty and demand from central banks. Despite a recent pullback in gold prices, the longer-term thesis remains intact.
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From a regulatory standpoint, the European Union continues to tighten its grip on Big Tech, handing out €700 million in antitrust fines to Apple and Meta for violations of the bloc’s digital competition rules. Finally, geopolitical risk remains elevated as Beijing reportedly pressured South Korea not to supply rare earth minerals to U.S. defense firms—an early sign that supply chain nationalism and resource weaponization remain key risks for global investors. Amidst this backdrop, BMO Capital Markets advises investors to stay disciplined, noting that widespread pessimism may be overdone in the face of improving data and de-escalating tensions.
