Macro Report
March 23 2026
FutureGate | Global markets are showing signs of fatigue, with technical indicators suggesting conditions are approaching oversold levels, according to analysts at Truist Financial. This comes amid rising geopolitical uncertainty, particularly in the Middle East, where Trump has indicated he is considering winding down the ongoing conflict with Iran. Despite this, tensions remain elevated, with Iran warning of potential retaliation against regional energy infrastructure and confirming that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to global shipping, excluding vessels linked to its adversaries.
Military developments have added to market unease after Iranian missiles reportedly penetrated Israel’s defence systems, striking within close proximity to a key nuclear research facility. These events have contributed to underperformance in international equities relative to U.S. markets since the conflict began, reflecting heightened risk premiums and investor caution across global portfolios. On the macroeconomic front, policymakers continue to balance inflation risks with slowing growth signals. Christopher Waller of the Federal Reserve noted a cautious stance but maintained that interest rate cuts remain possible later this year if economic conditions warrant. Supporting this outlook, Morgan Stanley estimates the probability of a recession remains below 30%, suggesting resilience in the broader U.S. economy despite recent volatility.
Commodity markets have also seen sharp moves, with Gold experiencing a nearly 10% decline over the past week—its worst performance in approximately 15 years—highlighting shifting investor positioning and reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets. At the same time, energy markets face supply-side pressures after Qatar reported that 17% of its liquefied natural gas capacity is currently offline, a development that could tighten global supply conditions. In parallel, structural policy developments continue to shape long-term market narratives. The White House has introduced a national framework for regulating artificial intelligence, aiming to establish consistent federal oversight and preempt a fragmented state-level regulatory approach. Meanwhile, China has reiterated its commitment to further opening its economy to foreign investment following a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus, signalling an effort to rebalance trade relationships and support global economic integration.
