Macro Report
April 28 2025
FutureGate | Markets are showing renewed signs of optimism as several key developments point to easing global tensions and supportive policy backdrops. China has taken a significant step by removing the 125% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. semiconductors and aircraft parts, a notable de-escalation in the ongoing trade conflict. Complementing this move, Chinese officials have publicly urged the United States to "cancel all unilateral tariffs," signaling a broader willingness to ease trade friction. Meanwhile, Trump has indicated that new trade deals could be announced within three to four weeks, calling a Japan agreement "very close," and France has also softened its approach in its trade dispute with the U.S.
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Market breadth is improving meaningfully, with the Zweig Breadth Thrust indicator triggering — a rare technical signal historically associated with the early stages of bull markets. This coincides with declining Treasury yields, as the 10-year U.S. yield dropped to 4.254%, reflecting both softer inflation expectations and heightened confidence in a more accommodative Federal Reserve. Several Fed officials, including Governor Christopher Waller, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, have indicated a willingness to cut rates should tariffs cause material job losses, reinforcing the sense that monetary policy will remain supportive if needed. Bill Ackman echoed market sentiment, suggesting that fear of appearing weak is the primary obstacle to tariff reductions between the U.S. and China, and he advocated for a more reasonable tariff range of 10–20%.
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From a structural standpoint, the U.S. remains an attractive investment destination despite trade headwinds, according to Jefferies, who emphasized America's continued economic resilience. Trump, for his part, has maintained a mixed stance — endorsing a millionaire’s tax while vowing to veto any proposed cuts to Medicaid, showcasing a pragmatic, populist economic agenda. In the resource sector, the Trump administration took decisive action by signing an executive order to boost deep-sea mining for critical minerals and moved to fast-track approvals for energy projects, reducing approval times to just 28 days. These steps are aimed at bolstering U.S. supply chains and reducing dependency on foreign resources at a time of rising strategic competition. In a broader context of global economic leadership, California has officially surpassed Japan to become the world's fourth-largest economy, highlighting the underlying strength and dynamism of the U.S. economy, particularly in sectors like technology and renewable energy.
